Test Of Champions

I heard the most ridiculous conspiracy theory the other day: That the only reason we're not seeing Rachel Alexandra in the Belmont Stakes is because Jess Jackson was paid by the NTRA to keep her out.

Visualize my incredulous look here as I say "Really?"

Now don't get me wrong. I'm not naïve. I'm sure this sort of thing happens more often than is publicized. But no, I won't subscribe to this. Because if that were the case, I think she'd have been running in the Acorn instead, not taking the day off.

For what it's worth, I was fine with the idea of her not going in the Belmont. In fact, my ideal path for her would have been the Triple Tiara (Acorn, Mother Goose, and CCAO), take August off, then run back in the Ruffian (12Sep) or the Beldame (3Oct) before shipping to Cali for the BCLC (6Nov). But since I'm not a decision-making member of her court, I just have to trust that those who are have the best course laid out for her through the rest of the year -- and hope that course takes her to a match-up with Zenyatta.

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Moving forward, let's talk about the Belmont field. Derby winner and Preakness runner-up Mine That Bird is getting a lot of due respect, although I'm admittedly a little nervous that he's not had a work over the track, and that jockey Calvin Borel chose not to ride anything on the highly contentious undercard (if you haven't seen it, take a look; it's positively brilliant). The Big Sandy is a beast unlike any other in the states. I think you have to run on it to really understand it.

That said, I'm liking the other Birdstone get, Summer Bird, to get a piece of this race. Kent Desormeaux won three in a row early today, and he's obviously hungry for a little redemption following last year's debacle with Big Brown. On the colt, I have to point out that not only was his sire a Belmont spoiler (vs Smarty Jones in 2004), but he closed for a very respectable 6th in the Derby after going 7-wide into the lane. He's coming in fresh, having not raced since Churchill, and as a confirmed closer he looks to want to go a bit of distance.

Charitable Man is another son of a Triple Crown upset (Lemon Drop Kid, vs Charismatic in 1999), and has two wins over this oval to his 3-0-0/4 credit. With the track playing strongly to up-front speed, he could have more company early on than trainer Kiaran McLaughlin would like (Pletcher-trained Dunkirk being the biggest threat), but he looks too good to disregard.

Chocolate Candy represented well enough with a 5th in the Derby, his first traditional dirt start. He's reportedly worked well over the surface, and is reunited with Garrett Gomez; who piloted him to victory in the Real Quiet as a two-year-old. Being bred for a distance, and facing a fast track, I'd gladly back him to hit the board here

Finally, Nick Zito has built a reputation in recent years as the trainer of Belmont day giant killers -- one of those being the aforementioned Birdstone -- and of his dark horse entries this year, Miner's Escape has blossomed impressively since stretching out from the sprint ranks; he could be in the mix late.

Enjoy the race, folks. Happy betting!

Yesterday's goodness aside (ie: Zenyatta is so much The Queen Freak I have to punctuate it with caps, and how can a victory by elder statesman Brass Hat be anything but cheer-worthy), let's not forget that this sport we love has its dangerous side.

Long-time Chicago-area rider Rene Douglas has been paralyzed following an accident in yesterday's running of the GIII Arlington Matron Handicap wherein his mount -- Born to Be -- was bumped and clipped heels, going down at the 3/16ths pole.

Thoughts, prayers, good juju... Whatever your Faith dictates, I'm sure it'll be appreciated by his family in this difficult time.

Shootin' Bulletpoints

• Rachel Alexandra. Her performance in the Oaks was what we like to call "won for fun". She stalked a solid pace, shifted into high gear without seeing a stick, and cruised home ears up. Jess Jackson is right to test her against the best in the country, gender be damned. Since there's likely to be an up-front speed duel between Big Drama and Pioneerof the Nile, she'll have something to follow and mow down in the stretch.
  
• One other horse that could well benefit from the likely up-front pace is Derby winner Mine That Bird, who proved he could rate far back and make a sustained late run. With Borel stepping off in favor of Rachel Alexandra, he gets the services of classic closing rider Mike Smith. Which raises his stock in my betting book, but I still don't think he'll stack up against the filly.
  
• Pioneerof the Nile, Musket Man, and Papa Clem -- 2nd, 3rd, and 4th in the Derby, respectively. Musket Man took a wide trip to the Derby-winner's rail-skimming move. As a result he got tangled up in the bumper car stretch run between Pioneerof the Nile and Papa Clem, and was checked out of the runner-up spot because of it. I love Pioneerof the Nile, but like his sire I don’t think he’ll shine brightest until Belmont.
  
• General Quarters, Friesan Fire, and Flying Private -- 10th, 18th, and 19th in the Derby. As expected after his Tampa Bay finish, General Quarters balked in heavy traffic and could never get his game on. Friesan Fire has an excuse for the poor showing in pulling a quarter early on before bleeding his way around the slop. Flying Private was never a factor and lost in the Derby crowd. All three seek redemption here, but of them I think the first two are the only ones with any chance.
  
• Luv Guv and Tone It Down are two newcomers with local ties, but I see little chance for either of them. In fact, if he weren't trained by D. Wayne Lucas, I'd never give Luv Guv a second glance. But he takes a big jump up in class here after running exclusively in the MSW ranks, where he held his own but didn't dominate in a way that makes me think he'll do much here, HoF conditioner or not.
  
• Big Drama posted a 108 Beyer last out, but it was the 7f GII Swale on 28Mar, which was his first race since 8Dec... Granted the Preakness isn't supposed to be as "grueling" as the Derby, but with his front-running style I can't help thinking this horse will prove to be a rabbit in the end.
  
• Terrain has butted heads with most of this field during his spring campaign: 4th behind General Quarters in the Blue Grass, 3rd to Friesan Fire and Papa Clem in the Louisiana Derby, 5th behind Big Drama in the Delta Jackpot: but the last time he finished before any of them was the Breeders' Futurity last October, when he bested Pioneerof the Nile by 3. He's a nice colt, but obviously out of his league in GI company.
  
• Take The Points could be worth some value in the exotics. He’s coming in off a strong 4th place showing behind Pioneerof the Nile and Chocolate Candy in the GI Santa Anita Derby back on 4Apr, and has already proven himself a winner twice under Edgar Parado on dirt.
  

It's 30 minutes to post. Have you made your bets yet? ^-^

Anatomy Of A (Curtailed) Crime

I think gender wars are silly.

Maybe it's because, as a child of the 70's, I came into womanhood in the 90's: long after the Women’s Lib movement had decided that the best way to get the bullies on the playground to show them some respect was to stop fighting with them and just pretend they weren’t there. Or maybe it's because my formative years were spent in a single mother household: a fact I neither bemoan nor regret as it laid a psychological foundation that has allowed me to see people as “people” first, and “man/woman” second (if at all; truth be told, I place “a credit to society” above gender any day, since my mother also taught me that a strong work ethic had nothing to do with whether or not you peed sitting down).

That said; I certainly respect Rachel Alexandra's connections in their decision to run her against her immediate peers in the Kentucky Oaks, rather than take on the colts in the next day’s Derby. But several fans of the sport were offended by the seeming sexist comments made in their post-race commentary, which included the following statement from Dolph Morrison, the “M” of L and M Partners LLC:

“The Triple Crown is the showcase of the future stallions of our industry ... Colts should run against colts, and fillies should run against fillies.”

Myriad bloggers responded, in varying degrees of outrage, post haste. As I read over the publications however, I admit I understood his point. In fact, I remain willing to concede to his way of thinking on one condition: that if we are going to cleanly gender-segregate the Sport of Kings, we need first to acknowledge the trials and accomplishments of the female of the species. Too much stock – too much responsibility – is being placed on the stud, and as anyone familiar with basic biology will confirm: breeding does not happen with testicles alone. Need I point out that the non-Mr. P half of Kingmambo is Miesque? Just sayin’.

[Sidebar apropos to the above: has anyone else noted the fact that 7 of Medaglia d’Oro’s top 10 performers are 3yo fillies, including both Rachel Alexandra and GII Black-Eyed Susan winner Payton d’Oro? I’m sensing a future broodmare sire here.]

But I digress. The point of this post was not to tangent on the merits of the Blue Hen. Rather to review quickly the events of the past two weeks in time for the second jewel of the Triple Crown: the 134th running of the Preakness Stakes.

For those who missed it, mere days after Rachel Alexandra’s exhibition of domination in the Oaks, she was purchased privately by Jess Jackson’s Stonestreet Stables (you might remember him from such hooplah as Team Curlin and the It’s A Sporting Gesture Band); who immediately moved the filly to Steve Asmussen’s barn, declared the sport should not be about the sexes, dropped $100k in supplemental fees to late-nominate the powerhouse filly to the Triple Crown, then secured a commitment from Calvin Borel for the mount, and pre-entered his new acquisition to the 12th race on Pimlico’s 16 May card. No word yet if this decision will supersede the immediately-post-Oaks report that she’d be Big Sandy bound to start the New York Filly Triple Crown, although chances are if she runs well against the boys here, she could well take on the Belmont.

And then, things got interesting. During interviews on HRTV and TVG, Ahmed Zayat (owner of Derby runner-up Pioneerof the Nile) made comment that he’d been contacted by Mark Allen (co-owner of the Derby winner, Mine That Bird), who informed Zayat of his intent to enter a second colt in the Preakness for the sole purpose of keeping Rachel Alexandra out. He allegedly sited similar views to Morrison’s (which in light of earlier comments about how they’d bought a gelding because they “wanted a racehorse, not a stallion” seems suspiciously hypocritical, but he’s also been accused of bribing a state official during the Alaskan public corruption scandal, so colour me shocked) and dropped co-conspirator names, including that of American Thoroughbred Aristocrat Marylou Whitney. While Zayat initially agreed to the idea, he later changed his mind in the wake of a media backlash:

“Her former owner’s original plan was not to run in the Preakness. He said he had respect for the industry, and that the Triple Crown was to showcase the 3-year-old colts and future stallions. I have never heard of a jockey moving from a Kentucky Derby winner to ride another horse. I find it disrespectful for America’s most coveted race. Considering all these factors, along with what I heard from other owners and breeders, I decided I would do what was in the best interest for all of us. To be honest with you, I’m not playing saint and am not above everything else. I have a vested interest; it was a business decision … Nevertheless, after talking to the president of the Maryland Jockey Club I have decided I don’t want to be viewed as not being a sportsman, so I am happy not to block her for the good of the game. Please understand this is not about me; this is about the industry, and although what is right is not very clear to me I am happy to reconsider my decision for the fans.” BloodHorse

Suffice it to say, the conspiracy fell through and Rachel Alexandra was not only admitted to the field of 14, she was made the heavy Morning Line favourite of 8/5. And I can’t say as I find fault in the assignment. My early prediction is she takes it by 5.

With Borel subscribed to pilot the filly, Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith has been tapped to pick up the mount on Derby winner Mine That Bird. While I’ve little doubt in mind that this year’s Run for the Roses was won by a lucky jock more than a talented horse (but please, feel free to judge for yourself), I will give the gelded son of Birdstone a wary eye now that we know he can come from well of the pace – which happens to be a Mike Smith specialty. All the same, I’m not convinced he can repeat the same effort twice in three weeks, and with a fair representation of early speed in the race I suspect he’ll fold early.

So Rachel Alexandra gets my top honours today: Not because she’s female, but because among one of the strongest crops of three-year-olds I’ve seen in recent years, she stands superior. Don’t agree? Watch the Oaks again. The last time I saw a performance remotely like this, as it aired, I was fourteen.

Finally, as a post-script: I know NBC did something similar in 2007, but I have this deep-buried recollection that, back in the spring of 1988, ABC ran a pre-race promo starring Winning Colors and Risen Star set to the tune of “Anything You Can Do, I Can Do Better”. Is anyone out there able to validate this for me? YouTube has failed in this respect, and I’m reasonably certain I’m not crazy...

TWITTERpated

• 10:36 Woke up this morning to news: I Want Revenge out of Derby w/ unidentified ankle swelling. :( #
• 10:42 Wet wet surface with an inside bias at Churchill. Liking Friesan Fire FTW right now. #
• 10:56 I <3 Randy Moss. #
• 11:47 ZOMG Bode Baffert! He's grown up so much! #
• 12:31 @JoeTalamo You're a class act, son. Also, love the suit. ^-^ #
• 13:16 Hank is starting to slip. Current odds 3/1 he's sloppy by Derby post... #
• 13:35 It's comforting to know I'm not alone in doing the Hokey Pokey on my picks. #
• 14:30 There's something uplifting about hearing my thoughts on racing needing a single ruling body being echoed by my mentors. #
• 14:55 Think Kent D is training up for a commentating position on retirement? :/ #
• 15:43 0.0 Calvin BoRail strikes again. Ho-ly crap. #
• 16:18 Good race. Glad I didn't bet it. ^-^ #

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Put Your Right Foot In

"Who do you like in the Derby?"

It's the question I hear most often this time of year, and as such I'm generally braced for it. Everyone that knows me knows that, by mid-April, I've poured through miles of articles, crunched a mountain of stats, watched hundreds of hours of prep race video, and distilled the essence of the Triple Crown Trail to what I believe is its keystone component: The Kentucky Derby Winner.

When the query was posed to me yesterday during lunch, however, I realized three things:

1. that in spite of miscellaneous medical defections, the 2009 Triple Crown crop was, by and large, one of the nicer gatherings than I'd seen in several years;
   
2. the west coast preps are churning out just as many (if not more) Derby competitors than the east coast tradition; and
   
3. my sandwich needed mayo.
   

Third point being nonsensical, the bottom line was this: Here we were -- eight days from the first Saturday in May -- and I didn't have a single pick for Derby Glory. I could make a solid argument for no less than six three-year-olds. It was a realization delightful in its frustration.

I WANT REVENGE (Stephen Got Even) kicked off the year by running 3rd to Pioneerof The Nile and Papa Clem over the Santa Anita synth in the GII Robert B. Lewis. Since heading east to Aqueduct, he has marched up the ranks with a runaway win in the GIII Gotham [vid] -- which resulted in a percentage of him being sold to IEAH -- and a gritty victory in what I believe was the best prep of the season, the GI Wood Memorial [vid]. Flat-footed at the gate, the colt was taken well out of his usual game by trailing the field down the backstretch, before threading through traffic in the lane under a masterful ride by 19-year-old recently-turned-pro Joe Talamo (who incidentally has pledged a percentage of his winnings to New Orleans Children's Hospital should his horse win the Derby). That the colt is talented is of no dispute; however it would seem that few good things in this sport go without a tinge of conspiracy as his trainer, Jeff Mullins, was recently accused of and suspended for administering medication to one of his charges in the pre-race security barn at Aqueduct. Nevertheless, I Want Revenge still tops my list of Derby contenders.

Currently battling the aforementioned for my top honours, FRIESAN FIRE (A.P. Indy) has done little wrong this season; notching consecutive wins in the GIII LeComte, the GIII Risen Star, and the GII Louisiana Derby -- the last of which was run over a very soupy track against future GII Arkansas Derby-winner Papa Clem [vid]. With the possibility of an off-track looming, Friesan Fire could well oust I Want Revenge from my top spot on that principal alone. He is trained by the upstanding Larry Jones, who conditioned runners-up in both the 2007 and 2008 Derbies (Hard Spun and Eight Belles, respectively) and will reportedly be retiring at the end of this year.

In spite of being strictly synthetic raced so far in his undefeated career, PIONEEROF THE NILE (Empire Maker) gets my seal of approval for two reasons: 1] trainer Bob Baffert (three-time Derby winning conditioner and recent Racing Hall of Fame inductee) was very pleased with the colt's most recent work over the Churchill surface; and 2] jockey Garrett Gomez chose him over Dunkirk for the Derby. Also, his pedigree is, in my opinion, the least suspect for getting a classic distance; and he didn't get off easy in his last prep after pressing a rapid pace and then fending off a late-closing Chocolate Candy.

PAPA CLEM (Smart Strike) legitimized his Derby standings by grinding out a win in the GII Arkansas Derby [vid], and proved trainer Gary Stute's belief that he wasn't a California speedball. The colt stalked a mean pace down the backside before fanning out six-wide in the turn, wearing Old Fashioned down in the final sixteenth to get a neck in front. Since arriving at Churchill, he's gotten a solid 7f work in, and could breeze again a few days before the big dance. He looks to be on the improve, something I very much like to see in a Derby contender.

CHOCOLATE CANDY (Candy Ride [ARG]) was clearly second best to Pioneerof The Nile in the GI Santa Anita Derby [vid], but I can't help thinking it was just the sort of prep he needed. In fact, with the exclusion of I Want Revenge's trip in the Wood Memorial, it's my favorite prep this season. Coming in off a 7-week lay-off, Chocolate Candy settled well off the pace, bore 8- almost 9-wide out of the turn, and made the winner work every stride to hold on to that lead. Improving his chances at Derby glory will be veteran jockey Mike Smith in the irons, whose riding style will suit the colt's come-from-behind running style (ala Giacomo).

Honourable mention goes to GENERAL QUARTERS (Sky Mesa), who has a good stalking style and is most certainly the biggest human interest angle of this year's entries (although it, too, is not without its sullied side). If he can get a good outside trip and stay out of trouble -- which was exactly what didn't happen in the GIII Tampa Bay Derby [vid] and resulted in his lacklustre 5th place finish -- if he can do that, I have little doubt he'll run in the money versus any of those listed here.

Also, QUALITY ROAD (Elusive Quality), who gets cited here based off his track record-setting effort in winning the GI Florida Derby over a very gutty late move by Dunkirk [vid]. However chronic foot issues developing since then have tempered my opinion of his chances, trainer Jimmy Jerkens' teleconference commentary notwithstanding.

There's a few others I may wax lyrical about between now and then. The field is not yet set, and in a game where odds are made overnight and careers can change at the drop of a pin, seven days is a long time.

So I'll spend the week putting my right foot in. Doin' the Hokey-Pokey. Turnin' myself around.

Because that's what it's all about.

RE: 3.14 Preps

Just a quick recap of the day's Derby preps and a little commentary on the winners. Tomorrow, I will post my Derby Top 10.

GII San Felipe : Pioneerof the Nile
I like a horse that can change tactics where necessary and not have a meltdown over it. Also, kudos to GoGo for recognizing that Talamo was killing the pace and sending his colt up early to press it. That right there saved him.

GII Rebel : Old Fashioned
Does 2nd here mean he can't run over a mile? Not in the least. I think it was a tactics beat, not a training or talent one. Suicidal opening fractions did him in. He was miles ahead of the rest of the field; the horse that beat him was a last-to-first move in the stretch.

GII Louisiana Derby : Friesan Fire [pic]
Moves to #1 with a bullet on my Derby list, for good reason. The ease he showed over the slop here was very appealing, especially since he was only :00.11 off of the final time for the San Felipe (which was run over a fast synth) and :01.21 off the final time I Want Revenge ran in the Gotham last week.

GIII Tampa Bay Derby : Musket Man [Yonaguska - Fortunesque (Fortunate Prospect)]
Last seen running 3rd behind General Quarters and Sumo in the Sam F Davis on Valentine's Day, he handed those rivals and seven others a sound defeat to the tune of 6-1. Chances are good his owners will supplement to nominate him for the Triple Crown off this victory, if they haven't already.